The AI investment cycle supports global growth, but the productivity dividend has not yet materialized — Analysis of Visa's mid-2026 outlook

Global economic growth is undergoing a rare "dual-track" cycle: on one side, the strongest corporate investment boom since 2010, and on the other, consumer budgets continuing to be squeezed by rising energy costs. The Visa Business and Economic Insights mid-2026 global economic outlook report, released on June 30, projects global GDP growth of 2.4% this year—a figure that reflects profound shifts in investment structure and adjustments in consumer behavior.

Investment Cycle: AI and Infrastructure Drive Capital Expansion

The report indicates that the global economy is currently experiencing its most active industrial investment cycle since 2010. Companies are racing to build AI infrastructure, advance the clean energy transition, and rebuild strategic supply chains, driving a synchronized surge in capital goods imports across the three major economies of the United States, the European Union, and China. Together, these three regions account for three-quarters of global capital goods demand, and the linkage in their investments shows a strong willingness to deploy capital, even against a more fragile geopolitical backdrop.

Wayne Best, Chief Economist at Visa, said: "Business investment is surging, with companies spending on AI, clean energy, and supply chain resilience at the highest levels since 2010. This trend is supporting global growth." Unlike 2010, when investment was primarily driven by industrialization in emerging markets, the current investment is more concentrated in the digital transformation and energy structure adjustments of advanced economies.

Productivity Gains Delayed: Standard Metrics Still Unable to Capture

Despite the investment boom, AI's contribution to productivity has yet to be reflected in traditional output indicators. Visa economists warn that companies are still in the early, high-cost stage of AI adoption, including redesigning business processes, integrating new tools into existing workflows, and training employees. These efforts are accumulating valuable intangible assets, but their costs and benefits are difficult to fully measure using standard productivity metrics, resulting in measured output that may appear flat or even weaker during the early adoption phase.

The report expects that the current wave of hardware investment in AI will be followed by a wave of complementary spending on software and other intangible assets, with productivity returns emerging in subsequent stages. This suggests that short-term macroeconomic data may continue to show a divergence between "hot investment" and "cool output."

Digital Commerce Diffusion: A Structural Anchor for Inflation

Notably, digital commerce is spreading from large cities to a broader geographic area, exerting structural downward pressure on inflation. Visa's analysis of nearly 600 cities shows that the penetration rate of card-not-present transactions in "peripheral" small cities has jumped from about 31% before the pandemic to approximately 56% in the first quarter of 2026, while core cities have consistently remained above 85%. Cities such as Fujairah, Annecy, and San Juan have seen particularly significant growth in the share of online shopping.High digital penetration comes with higher churn rates: the rising share of online spending erodes consumer loyalty, weakening retailers’ ability to raise prices. As price comparison becomes easier, retailers face continuous pricing pressure, forcing them to rely more on retail media, loyalty programs, and personalization as competitive levers. This dynamic essentially provides a mechanical cooling valve for overall inflation.

Consumer Resilience: Adjustment, Not Collapse

Despite rising energy prices squeezing household budgets, Visa’s Spending Momentum Index shows that discretionary consumer spending has remained relatively stable, with signs of slight improvement even in May. Visa economists describe this as “more of an adjustment than a collapse,” in contrast to the sharp cuts in consumer spending during the 2022 inflation shock. The key difference is that the current cycle has not seen a direct disruption to global food supplies like in 2022—when exports from Ukraine and Russia, two major grain exporters, were impacted.

However, food prices are expected to continue rising through the second half of the year, with Visa forecasting a peak in the fourth quarter of 2026. This is due to oil-related fertilizer cost pressures being transmitted with a lag through the agricultural cycle—this delayed effect means that food inflation pressure will be concentrated late in the year.

Long-Term Perspective: Investment Cycles and Structural Changes

From a broader perspective, the current investment boom is not merely a response to short-term market opportunities but also reflects a shift in the long-term growth model of the global economy. The convergence of AI infrastructure, clean energy, and supply chain restructuring is reshaping the structure of capital formation. If subsequent productivity gains materialize as expected, the global potential growth rate could gain new support. But before that, the global economy will go through a transitional period of mismatch between investment and output, with consumer resilience gradually wearing down.

Visa’s outlook provides a balanced narrative: the investment cycle is the main engine of growth, but the reshaping of consumer behavior by digitalization is changing the dynamics of inflation. Central banks and policymakers need to pay attention to the long-term implications of this structural change for interest rate paths and monetary policy.