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Macro Economy

Track global growth, GDP revisions, inflation, fiscal signals, and the macro indicators shaping the next policy debate.

Macro Economy
Macro Economy

The Global Economy in the Era of Supply Shocks: Resilience, Divergence, and Restructuring

Global economic growth momentum is shifting from the demand side to the supply side, as geopolitical conflicts, tariff barriers, and energy shocks intertwine, forcing central banks, businesses, and investors to recalibrate their understanding of cycles, inflation, and capital allocation. This article, based on EY-Parthenon's latest global economic outlook, analyzes growth slowdowns, regional divergence, and structural opportunities in a world of supply shocks.

Alistair Vance5 min read
Macro Economy

2026 Global Economic Outlook: Policy Reset, Trade Restructuring, and the Shift in Long-term Growth Models

In 2026, the global economy will enter a new phase of a cycle deeply influenced by policy. Trade barriers are shifting toward higher-cost agreements, regional cooperation outside the U.S. is deepening, and competition in AI investment is intensifying, while the diverging paths of countries such as Argentina and Canada provide a window into understanding how different economies adapt to the new geopolitical landscape.

Elena Rossi6 min read
Macro Economy

2026 Global Economic Outlook: Trade Restructuring, Policy Divergence, and New Logic of Growth

In 2026, the global economy enters a period of deep adjustment: US trade barriers are reshaping supply chains, non-US economies are accelerating regional integration, and inflation and interest rate cycles are diverging. Based on Deloitte's forecasts for 25 economies, this article analyzes cases such as Argentina and Canada to reveal the new logic of growth and where the risks lie.

Wei Chen5 min read
Macro Economy

Global macroeconomic rebalancing: Geopolitical shocks, inflation stickiness, and central bank policy divergence

In mid-2026, global economic growth is struggling to advance amid geopolitical and energy price shocks. The European Central Bank unexpectedly raised interest rates, while Brazil and Russia took the lead in cutting rates, making policy divergence a new global macro theme. This article, based on McKinsey's latest global economic intelligence, analyzes the new global landscape of inflation, growth, and consumption.

Elena Rossi6 min read
Macro Economy

Global Economic Outlook: Risks and Opportunities in a World of Supply Shocks

EY-Parthenon's latest forecast shows global growth slowing to 2.9% in 2026, as supply shocks, trade fragmentation, and geopolitical conflicts reshape the economic landscape. This article provides an in-depth analysis of regional divergence, inflationary pressures, and the long-term opportunities presented by AI investment.

Sofia Martinez5 min read
Macro Economy

The European Central Bank Amid the Middle East Conflict: The Dual Game of Inflation Expectations and Growth Risks

The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at its March 2026 meeting. The war in the Middle East has pushed up energy prices, with short-term inflation set to rise above 3%, while growth faces downside risks. Based on the ECB's Economic Bulletin, this article provides an in-depth analysis of its policy logic, inflation trajectory, and economic growth outlook.

Alistair Vance6 min read
Macro Economy

2026 Global Economic Outlook: Between Resilience, Uncertainty, and Structural Reshaping

This article is based on Deloitte Insights' global economic outlook for 2026. From a global macroeconomic perspective, it provides an in-depth analysis of key issues such as economic growth, inflation trends, central bank policies, geoeconomic divergence, and long-term structural changes over the coming year, offering decision-makers a forward-looking framework for thinking.

Elena Rossi8 min read
Macro Economy

2026 Global Economic Outlook: Policy Restructuring and Growth Divergence

Based on Deloitte Insights' "Global Economic Outlook 2026," this article provides an in-depth analysis of global policy adjustments, inflation trends, trade restructuring, and regional divergence, exploring the pattern of world economic growth in 2026 and the evolution of long-term cycles.

Wei Chen6 min read
Macro Economy

Asia drives global economic growth and resource demand: an underestimated long-term trend

The latest forecast from the International Monetary Fund shows stable global economic growth, with Asia—especially China and India—remaining the core drivers of resource demand. This article analyzes from a macroeconomic perspective how Asia is reshaping the commodity market and explores the long-term outlook for key minerals such as iron ore.

Sofia Martinez3 min read
Macro Economy

China's Q2 growth slowdown: the pains of economic rebalancing

China's GDP grew by 6.3% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2023, lower than market expectations, marking the slowest growth in three and a half years. Analysts pointed out that uneven economic recovery, continued weakness in real estate, drag from foreign trade, and insufficient domestic demand are the main factors. This article analyzes China's structural economic adjustments and their impact on the world from a global macro perspective.

Alistair Vance4 min read
Macro Economy

Geopolitical Risks and Rising Energy Prices: The Deep Logic Behind IMF's Downgrade of the 2026 Global Growth Forecast to 3%

The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3%, citing tensions in the Middle East and rising energy costs as the main drags. This article analyzes the structural drivers of the slowdown from a global macro perspective and explores the spillover effects on emerging economies such as India.

Sofia Martinez3 min read
Macro Economy

War reshapes economic trajectory: IMF warns Israel's growth potential faces structural erosion

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted in its annual assessment that while Israel's economy has shown resilience, three years of war have caused GDP to deviate 9% from pre-war trends, and the 2026 growth forecast has been downgraded to 3.5%. The report warns that the low employment rates of ultra-Orthodox men and Arab women have evolved from a social issue into a macroeconomic risk, while high-skilled industries face both opportunities and challenges amid the global AI wave. Rising fiscal deficits and public debt require structural reforms, not just tax increases.

Alistair Vance4 min read
Macro Economy

High debt, AI frenzy, and financial fragility: BIS warns of global risk triple threat

The latest annual economic report of the Bank for International Settlements points out that sovereign debt reaching record highs, AI investment bubble risks, inflation stickiness, and financial fragility are forming a complex global risk landscape, calling on policymakers to take immediate action to maintain stability.

Alistair Vance3 min read
Macro Economy

The Dual Rifts of China's Economy: Shrinking Domestic Demand and AI-Driven Export Boom

In May 2026, China's retail sales fell for the first time in three years, while industrial output grew against the trend, supported by AI and exports, highlighting a structural imbalance between weak domestic demand and strong external demand. Real estate investment continued to decline, and expectations of policy intervention are rising.

Elena Rossi4 min read
Macro Economy

How the Middle East conflict is repricing global growth: inflation, interest rates, and capital reallocation in the eyes of the OECD

OECD’s latest assessment指出 that if the conflict in the Middle East continues, global growth, inflation, and interest rates could all enter a new zone of pressure. This article analyzes, from the perspectives of energy shocks, central bank responses, trade restructuring, and regional divergence, why this geopolitical conflict may change the way the global economic cycle operates.

Alistair Vance7 min read
Macro Economy

The global economy’s dilemma: geopolitical shocks, a resurgence of inflation, and the delayed realization of AI productivity gains

The World Economic Forum's latest Chief Economists' Survey shows that global growth expectations are weakening, the risk of resurgent inflation is rising, and artificial intelligence is still seen as a support for medium-term growth, but the speed at which its productivity dividends materialize is slower than previously expected. This article reconstructs the core contradictions of the current global macro cycle from the perspectives of energy, trade, debt, and regional divergence.

Wei Chen7 min read
Macro Economy

The Twin Pressures on Global Growth: How Geopolitical Shocks Are Suppressing the Decline in Inflation, and Why AI Is Still Struggling to Translate into Productivity Gains

The World Economic Forum’s latest survey of chief economists shows that global growth expectations are weakening, while geopolitical shocks, rising energy and food prices, and renewed supply chain tightness are pushing up inflation and market volatility; meanwhile, the spread of artificial intelligence continues to accelerate, but the timing of its productivity gains is widely seen as being delayed.

Wei Chen8 min read