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Monetary Policy

Follow central bank decisions, rate paths, balance-sheet shifts, and the inflation evidence behind policy guidance.

Monetary Policy
Monetary Policy

Risk of ECB rate hike repeating the 2011 mistake

The European Central Bank plans to raise interest rates next week, a strategy that led to an economic recession in 2011. With the eurozone facing the risk of recession, historical lessons are worth heeding.

Alistair Vance3 min read
Monetary Policy

The market has not truly priced in geopolitical and fiscal risks: the global macro signals behind the European Central Bank’s warning

The European Central Bank pointed out that the market is still insufficiently pricing in the risks brought by the Middle East conflict and rising government debt. At a deeper level, this is not only a reminder about Europe’s financial conditions, but also reflects that the world has entered a new macro phase of high uncertainty, low tolerance, and strong repricing.

Sofia Martinez6 min read
Monetary Policy

Sri Lanka raises interest rates by 100 basis points: how the Middle East energy shock pushes vulnerable economies back into “defensive mode”

Sri Lanka responded to soaring energy prices, pressure on its exchange rate, and a rebound in inflation with its largest interest rate hike in three years. This is not only a shift in monetary policy by a single country, but also reflects how the conflict in the Middle East is reshaping the macroeconomic vulnerabilities of emerging markets through oil prices, capital flows, and the foreign exchange market.

Elena Rossi7 min read